Expert record
Larry Summers
Sep 18, 2025
The U.S. is entering or approaching stagflation, with inflation surprising to the upside due to tariffs.
Economy
Larry Summers
Apr 10, 2025
60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.
Economy
Larry Summers
Apr 9, 2025
More likely than not that the U.S. enters a recession (with ~2 million additional unemployed) due to tariff policies.
Economy
Larry Summers
Jun 14, 2024
Implementation of proposed large tariff hikes combined with income-tax cuts will produce severe stagflation (high inflation + stagnant growth).
Economy
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
Approximately 75% chance of U.S. recession within 18 months (by early 2024).
Economy
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
U.S. unemployment rate exceeds 6% sometime between 2022 and 2025.
Economy
Larry Summers
Jul 22, 2022
Probability greater than 50% that a U.S. recession begins in 2023.
Economy
Larry Summers
Jun 16, 2022
Given 2022 conditions of unemployment <4% and inflation >4%, a U.S. recession will occur within two years (by mid-2024).
Economy
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
Approximately 75% chance of U.S. recession within 18 months (by early 2024).
Economy
Larry Summers
Aug 3, 2022
U.S. unemployment rate exceeds 6% sometime between 2022 and 2025.
Economy
Larry Summers
Jul 22, 2022
Probability greater than 50% that a U.S. recession begins in 2023.
Economy
Larry Summers
Jun 16, 2022
Given 2022 conditions of unemployment <4% and inflation >4%, a U.S. recession will occur within two years (by mid-2024).
Economy