PUBLICLEDGER
60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Apr 10, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- 60%
Original statement
“there was a 60% chance of a 2025 economic recession.”
Resolution
Resolution criterion required an NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration that a U.S. recession began in 2025. The NBER’s official announcements and its business-cycle chronology show no announcement declaring a recession start in 2025 (the most recent peak/trough announcements relate to February–April 2020). Independent series that mirror NBER dating (FRED USREC) show no NBER-flagged recession months in 2025. Therefore the prediction that a recession would be declared by the NBER as beginning in 2025 is incorrect.
Business Cycle Dating Committee Announcements
List of Business Cycle Dating Committee announcements (most recent relevant announcements: June 8, 2020 and July 19, 2021); no announcement declaring a recession beginning in 2025.
Primary evidenceU.S. Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions (NBER)
NBER chronology of U.S. business-cycle peaks and troughs (most recent peak: February 2020; trough: April 2020). No start date listed in 2025.
Supporting evidenceUSREC: NBER-based Recession Indicator for the United States (FRED)
NBER-based monthly recession indicator series (shows recession flag values assigned by NBER; contains no recession months in calendar year 2025).
Normalized claim
60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration of a recession beginning in 2025.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-04-10 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-10-04 20:14 UTC