The public prediction record
See which pundits, CEOs, and forecasters actually got their public predictions right — every claim linked to its original quote, tied to a real deadline, and scored when it comes due.
What one prediction looks like
Resolved prediction
Correct“Real wages have begun to recover as inflation moderates.”
The verdict
They were right.
Real average hourly earnings recovered and posted positive growth as CPI inflation fell.
Anthony Pompliano
Sep 14, 2026
The Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates at its September 2026 meeting.
Economy
Anthony Pompliano
Sep 14, 2026
If AI proves significantly deflationary, governments will expand money supply, causing rapid appreciation in Bitcoin, gold, and land.
Crypto
Anthony Pompliano
Sep 14, 2026
The Federal Reserve should not raise interest rates at its September 2026 meeting.
Economy
Anthony Pompliano
Sep 14, 2026
If AI proves significantly deflationary, governments will expand money supply, causing rapid appreciation in Bitcoin, gold, and land.
Crypto
Takes are forward-looking claims where at least one ingredient — usually the deadline or the resolution source — had to be imputed by an editor. They're shown for context and never enter the leaderboard.
Jason Furman
Sep 1, 2023
Real wage growth turned positive as inflation declined from 2022 peaks.
Economy
Claudia Sahm
Jul 19, 2026
The Sahm Rule recession indicator is not currently signaling a recession as of mid-2026.
Economy
Claudia Sahm
Feb 10, 2026
2025 featured essentially zero net job growth without constituting a recession.
Economy
Bill Ackman
Jul 4, 2022
Technical real-GDP recession definitions under high inflation in 2022 would not reflect a true economic contraction.
Economy