PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The U.S. is entering or approaching stagflation, with inflation surprising to the upside due to tariffs.
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Sep 18, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I think we may be at the foothills of stagflation. I don’t think tariff impacts have been fully felt or will be for some time, and confidence has more room to decline than to rise. I think inflation will surprise a bit on the high side.”
Normalized claim
The U.S. is entering or approaching stagflation, with inflation surprising to the upside due to tariffs.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
BLS CPI inflation remaining sticky or rising while real GDP growth slows markedly (near-zero or negative) in subsequent quarters, per BEA data.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-09-18 17:12 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC