Approximately 75% chance of U.S. recession within 18 months (by early 2024).

Original statement

“the odds that the economy will go into recession within the next 18 months are quite serious, and probably in the three quarters range.”

Larry Summers@LHSummersAug 3, 2022 · 00:00 UTCView source

Resolution

Incorrect

No NBER recession was declared by early 2024.

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee

Resolved Feb 29, 2024 · 00:00 UTC

Normalized claim

Approximately 75% chance of U.S. recession within 18 months (by early 2024).

A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.

Resolution criteria

NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration of recession beginning by February 2024.

Market context

No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.