PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Implementation of proposed large tariff hikes combined with income-tax cuts will produce severe stagflation (high inflation + stagnant growth).
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Jun 14, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“This is a prescription for the mother of all stagflations.”
Normalized claim
Implementation of proposed large tariff hikes combined with income-tax cuts will produce severe stagflation (high inflation + stagnant growth).
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Simultaneous occurrence of CPI inflation remaining elevated (>4%) and real GDP growth near zero or negative for multiple quarters following significant tariff implementation.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2024-06-14 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC