PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Incorrect
Probability greater than 50% that a U.S. recession begins in 2023.
- Expert
- Larry Summers
- Prediction date
- Jul 22, 2022
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2023
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- 50%
Original statement
“the odds are probably better than half that a recession will start next year.”
Resolution
Incorrect
No NBER-declared recession began in 2023; the U.S. avoided recession that year.
Resolved Jan 1, 2024 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
Probability greater than 50% that a U.S. recession begins in 2023.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee declaration of a recession starting in calendar year 2023.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2022-07-22 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:41 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:41 UTC