Expert record
Chamath Palihapitiya
Aug 3, 2026
By approximately February 2028, AI models undergo recursive self-improvement leading to dramatically higher capability and marginal inference costs approaching $0.
AI / Tech
Chamath Palihapitiya
Aug 3, 2026
Marginal costs of frontier AI models approach zero within the next 18 months (by early 2028).
AI / Tech
Chamath Palihapitiya
Aug 2, 2026
The question of whether OpenAI/Anthropic-style frontier model companies can sustain multi-trillion-dollar valuations is resolved by end of 2026 via IPO pricing, open-model efficiency data, or price competition.
AI / Tech
Chamath Palihapitiya
Jan 11, 2026
SpaceX does not conduct a traditional IPO but instead reverse-merges into Tesla.
Business
Chamath Palihapitiya
Jan 6, 2023
Starlink conducts an IPO in 2023 at a valuation of at least $75 billion.
Business
Chamath Palihapitiya
Dec 24, 2022
The All-In Podcast will not present a “Best Turnaround” award until 2025.
Culture
Chamath Palihapitiya
Jan 7, 2021
Bitcoin price reaches $100,000, then $150,000, then $200,000 within roughly 5–10 years from early 2021.
Crypto
Chamath Palihapitiya
Oct 3, 2020
Joe Biden wins the November 2020 U.S. presidential election (with implied ~65-70% probability).
Elections
Chamath Palihapitiya
Jan 11, 2026
SpaceX does not conduct a traditional IPO but instead reverse-merges into Tesla.
Business
Chamath Palihapitiya
Jan 6, 2023
Starlink conducts an IPO in 2023 at a valuation of at least $75 billion.
Business
Chamath Palihapitiya
Dec 24, 2022
The All-In Podcast will not present a “Best Turnaround” award until 2025.
Culture
Chamath Palihapitiya
Jul 20, 2020
Amazon market capitalization reaches $3 trillion by the end of 2025.
Markets