By approximately February 2028, AI models undergo recursive self-improvement leading to dramatically higher capability and marginal inference costs approaching $0.

Original statement

“The AI Singularity The argument goes like this: 1. Humans build an AGI. 2. The AGI becomes good at AI research. 3. It designs a smarter AI. 4. That smarter AI designs an even smarter AI. 5. The cycle repeats faster and faster. Looking at the results and capabilities from the various labs over the past few weeks I would say we are firmly in this loop now. The next 18months will be wild. Recursive self improvement will dramatically increase capability very quickly from here. Marginal costs of all models will go to ~$0.”

Market context

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Resolution

This prediction remains open.