Amazon market capitalization reaches $3 trillion by the end of 2025.

Expert: Chamath Palihapitiya
Prediction date: Jul 20, 2020
Deadline: Dec 31, 2025
Category: Markets & Investing
Explicit confidence: Not stated

Original statement

“This is our $AMZN deck from @SohnConf in 2016. Our idea was that $AMZN would 10x in 10y, become a $3T company by 2025, generating a 24% CAGR. Halfway through, it’s eerily on track...”

Chamath Palihapitiya@chamathJul 20, 2020 · 11:47 UTCView source

Resolution

Incorrect

Amazon first reached a $3 trillion market capitalization in August 2026, after the 2025 deadline.

Supporting evidence

Amazon enters $3 trillion club as AI, cloud growth power rally

Resolved Aug 3, 2026 · 20:00 UTC

Normalized claim

Amazon market capitalization reaches $3 trillion by the end of 2025.

A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.

Resolution criteria

Amazon (AMZN) market capitalization as reported by major exchanges (NASDAQ/Yahoo Finance/Bloomberg) on or before 2025-12-31 reaches or exceeds $3,000,000,000,000.

Market context

No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.

Audit trailView full history

Source recorded2020-07-20 11:47 UTC
Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:07 UTC
Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:07 UTC