Audit trail / Prediction fa31bf03
Every state change we record for this prediction, in order. Published prediction substance is immutable; if a correction was needed it appears here with the reason.
“60% probability of a U.S. recession in calendar year 2025.”Larry Summers
Admin approved & published
ADMIN · 2026-09-11 04:41 UTC
Imported via hand-curated batch (scripts/import-seed-predictions equivalent)
Resolution proposed
SYSTEM · 2026-09-15 23:07 UTC
Queued for admin review.
Resolution proposed
SYSTEM · 2026-09-16 17:49 UTC
Queued for admin review.
Resolution approved
ADMIN · 2026-10-04 20:14 UTC
Reviewed and approved: NBER announcement archive + USREC series show no NBER-declared recession in 2025.