PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Incorrect
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is essentially a 50/50 toss-up between Harris and Trump.
- Expert
- Nate Silver
- Prediction date
- Nov 5, 2024
- Deadline
- Nov 5, 2024
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“When I say the odds in this year’s presidential race are about as close as you can possibly get to 50/50, I’m not exaggerating.”
Resolution
Incorrect
Donald Trump won both the popular vote and Electoral College; the outcome was not a near-tie in result.
Resolved Dec 17, 2024 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
The 2024 U.S. presidential election is essentially a 50/50 toss-up between Harris and Trump.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Official Electoral College results certified by Congress / National Archives for the 2024 presidential election.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2024-11-05 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:14 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:14 UTC