PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
AGI will not be achieved in 2026.
- Expert
- Gary Marcus
- Prediction date
- Jul 17, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“we will not get to AGI in 2026.”
Normalized claim
AGI will not be achieved in 2026.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Absence of consensus AGI achievement by December 31, 2026, per primary lab announcements and independent assessments.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-07-17 19:22 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:12 UTC