PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Bitcoin will not experience a >50% price crash within two years driven by AI undermining its security/robustness guarantees; probability of cryptographic breaks in hashes or PoW is tiny.
- Expert
- Vitalik Buterin
- Prediction date
- Sep 7, 2026
- Deadline
- Sep 7, 2028
- Category
- Crypto
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I take the opposite side of that. ... I expect BTC to handle at least any issues that do not require social consensus well ... (and I think the probability of actual breaks on hashes or PoW is tiny) ... I'm basically taking this bet ... with ~90% of my net worth already”
Normalized claim
Bitcoin will not experience a >50% price crash within two years driven by AI undermining its security/robustness guarantees; probability of cryptographic breaks in hashes or PoW is tiny.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Bitcoin price remaining above 50% of its September 2026 level through September 2028, and no successful break of SHA-256 or PoW consensus requiring social coordination, as reported by CoinMarketCap/Blockchain.com and cryptographic community consensus.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-07 01:24 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:54 UTC