PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The U.S. economy is in a stagflationary environment (elevated inflation + slowing growth) as of April 2026.
- Expert
- Ray Dalio
- Prediction date
- Apr 27, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“We are certainly in a stagflationary period”
Normalized claim
The U.S. economy is in a stagflationary environment (elevated inflation + slowing growth) as of April 2026.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
BLS CPI remaining above 3% YoY concurrent with BEA real GDP growth below 1.5% or declining for multiple quarters in 2026.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-04-27 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:48 UTC