PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The U.S. is very close to a recession, with risk of an outcome worse than a standard recession if policy is mishandled.
- Expert
- Ray Dalio
- Prediction date
- Apr 13, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I THINK THAT RIGHT NOW WE ARE AT A DECISION MAKING POINT AND VERY CLOSE TO A RECESSION, AND I'M WORRIED ABOUT SOMETHING WORSE THAN A RECESSION IF THIS ISN'T HANDLED WELL.”
Normalized claim
The U.S. is very close to a recession, with risk of an outcome worse than a standard recession if policy is mishandled.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
NBER recession declaration in 2025-2026 and/or occurrence of a more severe event (e.g., financial crisis, monetary order breakdown) as defined by major institutions (Fed, IMF, or historical analogs).
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-04-13 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:48 UTC