PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
True AGI, defined as an entity one would prefer to hire over a human for an arbitrary job, remains years of additional work away.
- Expert
- Andrej Karpathy
- Prediction date
- Oct 18, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“before we have an entity that you'd prefer to hire over a person for an arbitrary job in the world.”
Normalized claim
True AGI, defined as an entity one would prefer to hire over a human for an arbitrary job, remains years of additional work away.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Whether, by 2035, there exists an AI system that employers broadly prefer to human workers across a wide range of arbitrary knowledge-work jobs, per labor market data and surveys.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-10-18 20:23 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:10 UTC