PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
Current AI models are in an intermediate stage of development and still require substantial further work before AGI.
- Expert
- Andrej Karpathy
- Prediction date
- Oct 17, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“We're at this intermediate stage. The models are amazing. They still need a lot of work.”
Normalized claim
Current AI models are in an intermediate stage of development and still require substantial further work before AGI.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Continued existence of major unsolved limitations (continual learning, reliable long-horizon agency, etc.) in frontier models through at least 2028, as documented in technical literature and lab reports.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-10-17 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:10 UTC