PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
OpenAI AI systems make small new scientific discoveries in 2026 and larger ones by 2028.
- Expert
- Sam Altman
- Prediction date
- Oct 29, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Category
- Science & Space
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“In 2026 we expect that our AI systems may be able to make small new discoveries; in 2028 we could be looking at big ones.”
Normalized claim
OpenAI AI systems make small new scientific discoveries in 2026 and larger ones by 2028.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
OpenAI publications, blog posts, or peer-reviewed papers attributing novel scientific discoveries (small in 2026, significant in 2028) to their AI systems.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-10-29 17:19 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:50 UTC