PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Incorrect
AGI arrives in 2025 (in response to a query about AGI timeline).
- Expert
- Elon Musk
- Prediction date
- May 25, 2024
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Next year”
Resolution
Incorrect
No consensus AGI was achieved or declared by major labs by the end of 2025.
Resolved Dec 31, 2025 · 23:59 UTC
Normalized claim
AGI arrives in 2025 (in response to a query about AGI timeline).
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Widely accepted achievement of AGI (highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work) by end of 2025, per OpenAI charter definition or equivalent consensus.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2024-05-25 05:34 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:34 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:34 UTC