PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
AI systems smarter than any individual human exist by the end of 2026 or 2027.
- Expert
- Elon Musk
- Prediction date
- Jan 22, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“The rate at which AI is progressing, I think we have AI that is smarter than any human this year, and no later than next year.”
Normalized claim
AI systems smarter than any individual human exist by the end of 2026 or 2027.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Public demonstrations or benchmarks showing an AI system outperforming the best humans across a broad range of cognitive tasks by 2027-12-31.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-01-22 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:34 UTC