PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The United States will be the principal source of global geopolitical risk in 2026.
- Expert
- Ian Bremmer
- Prediction date
- Jan 6, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2026
- Category
- Geopolitics & Conflict
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“The U.S. will be the principal source of global risk this year.”
Normalized claim
The United States will be the principal source of global geopolitical risk in 2026.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Eurasia Group / GZERO assessments and independent risk indices (e.g., geopolitical risk indexes from major banks or think tanks) ranking the U.S. as the top driver of global uncertainty throughout 2026.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-01-06 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:39 UTC