PUBLICLEDGER
Resolution pendingArchive capture
President Trump’s tariff negotiation strategy, despite risks, has a reasonable chance of success.
- Expert
- Bill Ackman
- Prediction date
- Apr 8, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Category
- Geopolitics & Conflict
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I wouldn’t bet against him.”
Normalized claim
President Trump’s tariff negotiation strategy, despite risks, has a reasonable chance of success.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Outcomes of 2025 tariff negotiations resulting in revised trade terms without prolonged global economic disruption.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-04-08 12:39 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:37 UTC