Audit trail / Prediction 95ebdcd4
Every state change we record for this prediction, in order. Published prediction substance is immutable; if a correction was needed it appears here with the reason.
“The US national generic congressional ballot on 2026-11-03 will show Democrats leading by 10 or more percentage points.”G. Elliott Morris
Admin approved & published
ADMIN · 2026-09-08 15:42 UTC
Approve: real dated prediction. Source cited a 20–30%+ probability; the underlying claim (10-pt lead in Nov) is what we score. RCP average is a defensible resolution source.
prediction_unpublished
SYSTEM · 2026-10-12 19:18 UTC
Source content changed materially or requires review.
prediction_republished
SYSTEM · 2026-10-12 21:20 UTC
Correction: unpublished on 2026-10-12 by a false source-edit detection (formatting-only difference). The source post is unchanged and the quote is verbatim in the restored source text.