PUBLICLEDGER
U.S. baseline for the near term features moderated but still outperforming growth alongside sticky above-target inflation.
- Expert
- Mohamed El-Erian
- Prediction date
- Jan 1, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Absent a major policy reset, my baseline scenario for the US includes a somewhat lower immediate growth rate, even as the economy outperforms its peers, and sticky inflation.”
Resolution
BEA’s official 2025 accounts show U.S. real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2025 (annual, 2024→2025) and the PCE price index excluding food and energy (core PCE) increased 2.8 percent in 2025. Both parts of the resolution criterion are satisfied: growth was positive but not an outsized “boom” (2.1% annual growth) and core inflation remained above 2% (2.8% for core PCE in 2025). BEA noted adjustments for missing October 2025 CPI data due to the federal shutdown, but the agency reported the above annual figures in its March 13, 2026 release. The official BEA releases are the primary sources for these statistics.
GDP (Second Estimate), 4th Quarter and Year 2025
Real GDP increased 2.1 percent in 2025 ... the PCE price index excluding food and energy increased 2.8 percent in 2025.
Primary evidencePersonal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, Excluding Food and Energy (core PCE)
Monthly and annual core PCE series and documentation (BEA publishes core PCE as the PCE price index excluding food and energy).
Resolved Sep 16, 2026 · 17:31 UTC
Normalized claim
U.S. baseline for the near term features moderated but still outperforming growth alongside sticky above-target inflation.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
2025 U.S. growth positive but not booming, with core inflation remaining above 2%, consistent with the described baseline.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-01-01 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:48 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-10-04 20:14 UTC