PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Microsoft (or the industry) will build the first fault-tolerant utility-scale quantum computer around 2027–2029.
- Expert
- Satya Nadella
- Prediction date
- Feb 19, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2029
- Category
- Science & Space
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“maybe '27, '28, '29, we will be able to actually build this [first fault-tolerant quantum computer]”
Normalized claim
Microsoft (or the industry) will build the first fault-tolerant utility-scale quantum computer around 2027–2029.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Public announcement and independent verification of a fault-tolerant quantum computer capable of useful computation by Microsoft or a peer organization by end of 2029.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-02-19 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:52 UTC