PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
A 10-year timeline to AGI (around 2035) is a bullish / optimistic forecast.
- Expert
- Andrej Karpathy
- Prediction date
- Oct 18, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I think that overall, 10 years should otherwise be a very bullish timeline for AGI, it's only in contrast to present hype that it doesn't feel that way.”
Normalized claim
A 10-year timeline to AGI (around 2035) is a bullish / optimistic forecast.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Whether AGI (system preferred for arbitrary jobs over a human) is widely acknowledged as achieved by end of 2035, per major lab claims and independent evaluations.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-10-18 20:23 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:10 UTC