PUBLICLEDGER
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Democrats have a 72% probability of winning a House majority in the 2026 midterms.
- Expert
- Nate Silver
- Prediction date
- Sep 9, 2026
- Deadline
- Nov 3, 2026
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- 72%
Original statement
“Silver Bulletin forecasts combine three pillars: a quality-weighted polling average with house-effect corrections, a fundamentals model (presidential approval + economic indicators), and a simulation engine designed to generate appropriately wide confidence intervals. ... 72% D probability of House majority (Silver Bulletin)”
Normalized claim
Democrats have a 72% probability of winning a House majority in the 2026 midterms.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Official results certified by state election authorities and the Clerk of the House for the 2026 midterm elections (House majority = 218 seats).
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-09 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:14 UTC