PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Incorrect
Tesla completes basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2020.
- Expert
- Elon Musk
- Prediction date
- Jul 9, 2020
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2020
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I remain confident that we will have the basic functionality for level five autonomy complete this year.”
Resolution
Incorrect
Tesla did not achieve Level 5 autonomy in 2020; FSD remained supervised (SAE Level 2) and continues to require driver attention years later.
Resolved Dec 31, 2020 · 23:59 UTC
Normalized claim
Tesla completes basic functionality for Level 5 autonomy by the end of 2020.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Tesla public statements, FSD software releases, or regulatory filings confirming Level 5 (full unsupervised autonomy in all conditions) capability by 2020-12-31.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2020-07-09 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:34 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:34 UTC