PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
By around 2031, the field may be on a clear path toward human-level intelligence but will not yet have achieved it.
- Expert
- Yann LeCun
- Prediction date
- Apr 1, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2031
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“At the very best, we might be convinced that we're on a good path towards human intelligence — but not yet at human intelligence — within five years.”
Normalized claim
By around 2031, the field may be on a clear path toward human-level intelligence but will not yet have achieved it.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Expert consensus and benchmark performance indicating progress toward but not attainment of human-level AI by end of 2031.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-04-01 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:07 UTC