PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Shipping velocity remains the strongest predictor of tech company success across all stages.
- Expert
- Paul Graham
- Prediction date
- Jun 25, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2029
- Category
- Business & Startups
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“The best predictor of success for tech companies, at every stage from during the YC batch to public company with billions in revenue, is the rate of shipping new stuff.”
Normalized claim
Shipping velocity remains the strongest predictor of tech company success across all stages.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Empirical studies or YC/venture data through 2029 correlating feature-release frequency with valuation growth, survival, or exit outcomes, confirming it as the top predictor.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-06-25 17:03 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:44 UTC