PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
With focus on world models, reliable reasoning, and explicit knowledge, AGI may be achievable in the next decade (by ~2036).
- Expert
- Gary Marcus
- Prediction date
- May 27, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2036
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“If we focus on the other three AGI may be achievable, possibly in the next decade.”
Normalized claim
With focus on world models, reliable reasoning, and explicit knowledge, AGI may be achievable in the next decade (by ~2036).
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Achievement of AGI (or clear path with major progress on the three listed components) by 2036, documented in technical literature.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-05-27 16:04 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:12 UTC