PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
The period from the 2026 midterms to the 2028 presidential election will be particularly risky for the U.S. economy and monetary system.
- Expert
- Ray Dalio
- Prediction date
- Jun 18, 2026
- Deadline
- Nov 30, 2028
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“We are entering a particularly risky period expected between the 2026 midterm election and the 2028 presidential election.”
Normalized claim
The period from the 2026 midterms to the 2028 presidential election will be particularly risky for the U.S. economy and monetary system.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Elevated volatility, recession, debt-market stress, or major policy disruption occurring between November 2026 and November 2028, documented by NBER, Treasury yields, or Fed statements.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-06-18 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:48 UTC