PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
Republicans have an 84% chance of winning control of the U.S. House in the 2022 midterms.
- Expert
- Nate Silver
- Prediction date
- Nov 8, 2022
- Deadline
- Nov 8, 2022
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- 84%
Original statement
“FiveThirtyEight’s Deluxe forecast for the U.S. House , which is now final and no longer updating, estimates that Republicans have an 84-in-100 chance of taking control of the chamber.”
Resolution
Correct
Republicans secured a House majority with 222 seats.
Resolved Jan 3, 2023 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
Republicans have an 84% chance of winning control of the U.S. House in the 2022 midterms.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Official results certified by state election authorities and the Clerk of the House for the 2022 midterm elections (House majority = 218 seats).
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2022-11-08 07:22 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:14 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:14 UTC