PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
AGI will not be reached in the 2020s (i.e., by 2030).
- Expert
- Gary Marcus
- Prediction date
- Jul 24, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I stand by my prediction that it might happen next decade but that we won’t reach it this decade.”
Normalized claim
AGI will not be reached in the 2020s (i.e., by 2030).
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
No consensus AGI achievement by December 31, 2030.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-07-24 17:05 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:12 UTC