PUBLICLEDGER
Resolution pendingArchive capture
The U.S. in 2025 will experience below-potential growth (growth recession) but not an outright recession of two consecutive negative quarters.
- Expert
- Nouriel Roubini
- Prediction date
- Jan 1, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2025
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“the likely 2025 end-of-year scenario is a growth recession (meaning below-potential growth), but not the outright recession”
Normalized claim
The U.S. in 2025 will experience below-potential growth (growth recession) but not an outright recession of two consecutive negative quarters.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
2025 U.S. real GDP growth positive but below potential, with no NBER recession dating for the year.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-01-01 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-13 00:30 UTC