PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
Current frontier models fall short of the capabilities being claimed or implied by much of the industry.
- Expert
- Andrej Karpathy
- Prediction date
- Oct 17, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2028
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“Overall, the models are not there. I feel like the industry is making too big of a jump and is trying to pretend like this is amazing, and it’s not. It’s slop.”
Normalized claim
Current frontier models fall short of the capabilities being claimed or implied by much of the industry.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Gap between marketed agentic capabilities and real-world reliability remaining large through 2027–2028, as measured by independent evaluations and user reports.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-10-17 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:10 UTC