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By 2030 it will become nearly impossible to devise tests that regular humans can pass but AI cannot.
- Expert
- François Chollet
- Prediction date
- Feb 12, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2030
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“I expect it will become nearly impossible by 2030.”
Normalized claim
By 2030 it will become nearly impossible to devise tests that regular humans can pass but AI cannot.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Difficulty in constructing novel tasks solvable by average humans but unsolvable by frontier AI systems by end of 2030, as assessed by independent researchers.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-02-12 23:27 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:28 UTC