PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Resolution pending
A 25 bp hike at the September meeting plus signaling of 1-2 additional hikes if warranted is the appropriate policy path.
- Expert
- Claudia Sahm
- Prediction date
- Sep 14, 2026
- Deadline
- Sep 17, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“A quarter-point increase now, with a signal of another hike or two if conditions warrant, is appropriate.”
Normalized claim
A 25 bp hike at the September meeting plus signaling of 1-2 additional hikes if warranted is the appropriate policy path.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
FOMC decision and SEP/dot plot or press conference language on September 16/17 2026 matching a 25 bp hike and conditional further tightening signals.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-14 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-14 23:07 UTC