PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
By ~2035, new affordable zero-carbon technologies (especially for hard-to-abate sectors) will be ready for large-scale deployment.
- Expert
- Bill Gates
- Prediction date
- Oct 28, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- Energy & Climate
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“With the right investments and policies in place, over the next ten years we will have new affordable zero-carbon technologies ready to roll out at scale.”
Normalized claim
By ~2035, new affordable zero-carbon technologies (especially for hard-to-abate sectors) will be ready for large-scale deployment.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Commercial availability and cost-competitiveness of zero-carbon solutions for steel, cement, aviation, or similar sectors, as tracked by IEA or Breakthrough Energy reports by 2035.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-10-28 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:23 UTC