PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
The arrival of AGI will not produce a sharp discontinuity in global GDP growth rates but will blend into the long-term ~2% trend.
- Expert
- Andrej Karpathy
- Prediction date
- Oct 17, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2045
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“AGI will just blend into the previous ~2.5 centuries of 2% GDP growth”
Normalized claim
The arrival of AGI will not produce a sharp discontinuity in global GDP growth rates but will blend into the long-term ~2% trend.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Global real GDP growth rates remaining in the historical 1.5–3% range in the decade following widely acknowledged AGI, per World Bank / IMF data.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-10-17 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:10 UTC