PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
The Ocean Cleanup will catch one third (≈33%) of the total amount of plastic flowing into the sea from all rivers worldwide by 2029-09-07.
Editor's noteImputed resolution_date as 2029-09-07 (three years after the 2026-09-07 source timestamp) because 'a few years' is reasonably interpreted as ~3 years. Imputed resolution_criteria as a comparison between Ocean Cleanup's published removal reports and peer‑reviewed global riverine plastic-input estimates because that is the standard public method to assess share of total riverine plastic removed.
- Expert
- Paul Graham
- Prediction date
- Sep 7, 2026
- Deadline
- Sep 7, 2029
- Category
- Energy & Climate
- Explicit confidence
- hope to
Original statement
“Met Boyan Slat today. The Ocean Cleanup is already catching about 5% of the total amount of plastic flowing into the sea from all the rivers in the world, and within a few years they hope to catch a third. Impressive that a single organization could have such impact.”
Normalized claim
The Ocean Cleanup will catch one third (≈33%) of the total amount of plastic flowing into the sea from all rivers worldwide by 2029-09-07.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Ocean Cleanup's publicly reported annual removal quantities reach ≥33% of the estimated annual total riverine plastic input, where the denominator is taken from peer‑reviewed global riverine plastic-input estimates (e.g., Jambeck et al., Lebreton et al.) and the numerator from Ocean Cleanup's published removal metrics.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-07 22:52 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-08 18:40 UTC