PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Correct
2025 featured essentially zero net job growth without constituting a recession.
- Expert
- Claudia Sahm
- Prediction date
- Feb 10, 2026
- Deadline
- Mar 31, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“the United States may have just had a year with essentially no net job growth, yet without being in a recession.”
Resolution
Correct
Subsequent data and Sahm’s own follow-up confirmed stalled payroll growth without a recession.
Resolved Mar 1, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
2025 featured essentially zero net job growth without constituting a recession.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
BLS payroll data for 2025 showing near-zero net employment change and absence of NBER recession dating for that period.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-02-10 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-13 00:30 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-13 00:30 UTC