PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
AGI will not be achieved in 2026 or 2027.
- Expert
- Gary Marcus
- Prediction date
- Dec 20, 2025
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2027
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“We won’t get to AGI in 2026 (or 7).”
Normalized claim
AGI will not be achieved in 2026 or 2027.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
No widely accepted demonstration or consensus declaration of AGI by major labs or independent evaluators by the end of 2027.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2025-12-20 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:12 UTC