PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Markets are pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike during the week of 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-20.
Editor's noteImputed resolution_date as 2026-09-20 (end of the calendar week containing the source timestamp 2026-09-14); imputed resolution_criteria as the Fed's FOMC statement on federalreserve.gov because Fed rate decisions are publicly announced via FOMC statements.
- Expert
- Mohamed El-Erian
- Prediction date
- Sep 14, 2026
- Deadline
- Sep 20, 2026
- Category
- Economy & Rates
- Explicit confidence
- 90%
Original statement
“Markets are now pricing in a 90% probability of a Fed rate hike this week.”
Normalized claim
Markets are pricing in a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will announce a rate hike during the week of 2026-09-14 to 2026-09-20.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
An FOMC statement / Federal Reserve press release on federalreserve.gov announcing an increase in the target federal funds rate during the week ending 2026-09-20.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-09-14 11:41 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-15 16:47 UTC