PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Workable agentic AI systems capable of reliable multi-step work emerged around December 2025.
- Expert
- Ethan Mollick
- Prediction date
- Mar 3, 2026
- Deadline
- Jun 30, 2026
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“From an AI user perspective, the four big leaps so far in ability: 1. GPT-3.5 (ChatGPT, November 2022) 2. GPT-4 (Spring 2023) 3. Reasoners (starts with o1-preview, but the real deal was o3, Spring 2025) 4. Workable agentic systems (Harness + good reasoner models, December 2025)”
Resolution
Agentic systems such as Claude Code, OpenAI Codex, and similar tools became widely available and demonstrated multi-hour independent work capability in late 2025 / early 2026.
Resolved Mar 1, 2026 · 00:00 UTC
Normalized claim
Workable agentic AI systems capable of reliable multi-step work emerged around December 2025.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Public availability and demonstrated capability of agentic systems (e.g., Claude Code, OpenAI Codex/Computer Use, or equivalents) performing useful multi-hour tasks by early 2026, as documented in product releases and user reports.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-03-03 05:56 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:36 UTC
- Resolution approved2026-09-11 04:36 UTC