PUBLICLEDGER
OpenArchive capture
Scaling or refining the current LLM paradigm will not produce human-level intelligence or superintelligence.
- Expert
- Yann LeCun
- Prediction date
- Jan 30, 2026
- Deadline
- Dec 31, 2035
- Category
- AI & Technology
- Explicit confidence
- Not stated
Original statement
“We’re not going to get to human-level intelligence or superintelligence by scaling up or refining the current paradigm.”
Normalized claim
Scaling or refining the current LLM paradigm will not produce human-level intelligence or superintelligence.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Failure of pure scaling approaches to produce systems meeting human-level benchmarks across diverse real-world and physical tasks by 2035, while alternative paradigms show superior progress.
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-01-30 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-12 23:07 UTC