PROJECT LIGHTHOUSE
Open
Democrats have an 85–90% chance of retaking the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms; the Senate is a toss-up.
- Expert
- Nate Silver
- Prediction date
- Jun 29, 2026
- Deadline
- Nov 3, 2026
- Category
- Politics & Elections
- Explicit confidence
- 88%
Original statement
“Nate Silver predicts an 85-90% chance Democrats retake the House in 2026, with the Senate a toss-up.”
Normalized claim
Democrats have an 85–90% chance of retaking the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterms; the Senate is a toss-up.
A falsifiable interpretation, separate from the exact source text.
Resolution criteria
Official results certified by state election authorities and the Clerk of the House for the 2026 midterm elections (House majority = 218 seats).
Market context
No high-confidence matching market is linked. Loose thematic matches are not shown.
Resolution
This prediction remains open.
Audit trailView full history
- Source recorded2026-06-29 00:00 UTC
- Prediction verified and frozen2026-09-11 04:14 UTC