Audit trail / Prediction 06416873
Every state change we record for this prediction, in order. Published prediction substance is immutable; if a correction was needed it appears here with the reason.
“There is a 20–30%+ chance that Democrats will lead the national generic ballot by 10 or more percentage points in November 2026, as measured by Morris's LV generic ballot index.”G. Elliott Morris
Auto-approved by LLM judge
SYSTEM · 2026-09-10 16:22 UTC
The candidate faithfully reflects the author’s tweet (same speaker), preserves the stated 20–30%+ probability, names the author’s LV generic ballot as the specific data source for resolution, and uses a November 2026 resolution window that is clearly inferable from the timestamped source.
prediction_unpublished
SYSTEM · 2026-10-12 19:18 UTC
Source content changed materially or requires review.
prediction_republished
SYSTEM · 2026-10-12 21:20 UTC
Correction: unpublished on 2026-10-12 by a false source-edit detection (formatting-only difference). The source post is unchanged and the quote is verbatim in the restored source text.